By now, we know the short- and long-term consequences of Covid-19. It caught the world unawares, exceeded some of the worst forecasts and left most people, families, companies and countries in need of massive rebuilding. It forced the closure of borders, necessitated travel bans worldwide and led to the shutdown of several enterprises – large and small. Economies took a beating across the board, some industries more than others.

Covid’s impact on Africa’s travel sector in numbers

Globally, aviation and tourism undoubtedly are among the biggest losers. The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) estimates a 50% drop in airline seat capacity in 2020 and a 60% drop in passenger numbers compared to 2019. During the pandemic, only 1.8 billion people flew compared to 4.5 billion in 2019.

That translated into a $370 billion loss for airlines with a further $115 billion loss for airpoirts and $13 billion for navigation services.

Closer to home, Africa’s tourism sector will, according to the United Nations Congress on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), lose earnings of $170 billion to $253 billion in 2021. The pandemic arrived just as Africa’s travel and tourism sector was set to become the second biggest in the world.

Tourism statistics by UNCTAD show that international tourist arrivals in Africa doubled from 24 million in 1995-1998 to 48 million in the 2005-2008 period; and 56 million in the 2011-2014 period. Tourism export revenues more than tripled from $14 billion in 1995-1998 to $47 billion in 2011-2014.

This upward trajectory was an even greater certainty in early 2019 when the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) agreement was concluded. Intra-African trade, estimated at 18% of Africa’s total trade, was guaranteed to shoot up to between 50% and 60% in the next decade. Then Covid-19 upset the apple cart and travel volumes are expected to return to their pre-Covid levels only from 2023 onward.

Granted, the coronavirus pandemic has had a huge impact on all Africa’s trade and industry, and all forecasts have been revised since the start of 2020. Although the travel and tourism sector is just one of them, the stalled growth and loss of earnings it is experiencing, demonstrate why it is so important for AfCFTA to deliver on its promises.

Is AfCFTA still the magic wand we had hoped it would be?

By the time AfCFTA was promulgated in January 2021, most intra-African trade dreams had been dampened and now it is justified to question whether this age-old dream of the founders of the African Union can be steadied again.

The answer is a resounding yes, provided Africa’s leaders can stay true to the basics of AfCFTA: ensuring the free movement of people and goods. Our failure to do this promptly will certainly impede our efforts to get AfCFTA back on track. Those who are optimistic about its chances are genuinely concerned about our weak roads, rail and border infrastructure; but this backlog provides precisely the opportunity for us to attract investment to create an infrastructure that is conducive to free trade.

Covid-19 was surely a dent on the ideals of AfCFTA, but a crisis is an opportunity for those who respond with conviction. Pfizer and Johnson & Johnson scored big with their blockbuster vaccines. Zoom, Microsoft and Google turned the pressure to operate virtually into a fortune with their remote meeting solutions. There are many entrepreneurs who cashed in by offering streaming services, home delivery solutions and the like.

The lack of healthcare facilities, schooling solutions for learning from home and the inability of border control to test for Covid-19 were exposed across most African countries. They are just another opportunity for Africans to innovate and ensure that the multitrillion market can become a reality. If China could build a hospital for thousands in weeks, Africa can use the backlog exposed by the Covid-19 outbreak to get AfCFTA going. It is unrealistic to expect it to solve Africa’s underdevelopment; and just as fatalistic to write it off.

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