The September 11 terror attacks in New York fundamentally reshaped global risk perception and capital flows. Confidence evaporated almost overnight, taking years to rebuild. The local insurance industry is at a comparable inflection point, says Gurshan Overmeyer, executive head: Specialty Business Development at Old Mutual Insure.

“What makes this moment distinctive is that confidence is rebuilding at the same time as the industry is being reshaped by AI. This convergence marks a genuine turning point.”

Insurance, he says, is both a mirror and an enabler of economic momentum and the signals coming through the market are materially changing. Previously constrained risks are returning as energy supply and logistics stabilise. Long-duration capital is re-entering infrastructure, renewables, water, ports and transport corridors, all of which require deep insurance capacity. Reinsurance sentiment toward South Africa, which had been steadily weakening, has shifted to cautious stabilisation.

“This shift matters because the insurance sector doesn’t function on sentiment alone; it functions on balance sheets. Strong prudential oversight over the past decade has preserved capital resilience across the industry. That stability now enables controlled expansion at precisely the moment confidence begins to return,” says Overmeyer.

This economic turning point is unfolding in parallel with the rapid acceleration of AI across the insurance value chain.

“Local insurers are embedding AI into claims settlement, fraud detection, predictive underwriting, customer-experience optimisation and catastrophe modelling. The efficiency gains are undeniable. But in emerging markets, AI needs to serve more than automation. It must enhance fairness, transparency and access. Explainable models, bias controls and strong data governance will increasingly define competitive trust. Global capital doesn’t just look for advanced technology - it seeks governed innovation.”

This, says Overmeyer is where South Africa has a strategic opportunity.

“There are green shoots: inflation has moderated relative to many global peers; fiscal discipline has strengthened and most importantly, energy availability - long the economy’s defining constraint - has stabilised through unprecedented private-sector generation and ongoing grid reform.”

These are not abstract improvements for the insurance industry. Energy reliability directly reduces business-interruption exposure. Improved freight movement reshapes marine and transport risk. Municipal stabilisation strengthens property risk profiles. Each of these recalibrates the national risk map.

Capital is responding cautiously but decisively. Corporate language is shifting from survival to strategy. Entrepreneurial activity is quietly accelerating and consumers are cautiously re-engaging with long-delayed upgrades to homes, vehicles and businesses.

Overmeyer says trust, the foundation of insurance, lies at the centre of this renewal. “Without trust in claims settlements, regulatory frameworks and institutional integrity, insurance loses its catalytic role in economic development. With trust, it becomes a powerful enabler of growth.”

South Africa has been here before. Ahead of the 2010 World Cup, scepticism was widespread. Despite the scepticism, South Africa successfully delivered the most ambitious infrastructure project in national history, delivered largely on time and at scale.

“For the insurance sector, the 2010 Word Cup proved that South Africa could underwrite and manage mega-project risk to global standards,” says Overmeyer.

“For much of the past decade, South African business strategy has been defensive. Turning points allow a different posture to emerge. For insurers, that means expanding confidently into infrastructure, energy and logistics; designing products for climate volatility, cyber risk and supply-chain disruption; and treating data and AI as strategic balance-sheet assets rather than operational tools alone.”

Perhaps the most decisive indicator of all is the quiet return of belief. This, says Overmeyer, is visible in underwriting appetite, capital deployment and investment horizons.

“Belief doesn’t replace policy or eliminate risk. But without it, no reform, fiscal adjustment or technological advance can function at scale,” he says.

“South Africa’s financial sector is currently at a rare inflection point where stabilising fundamentals meet rising confidence and where responsible innovation meets renewed global engagement. For the insurance industry, this isn’t simply a phase to observe but rather a moment to lead.”

Turning points, he adds, rarely announce themselves. Instead, they are recognised only in hindsight by those who were prepared to commit while confidence was still fragile.

“South Africa is turning and the South African insurance sector is ready to underwrite and insure what comes next.”