The madness and the mundane
The most overused word of the year, “uncertainty,” is being put to work again. The conflict between Israel and Iran has now drawn in the US. American bombers hit three sites in Iran on Sunday, with the stated aim of destroying Iran’s nuclear capabilities. While US President Trump claims that he has achieved his goals and that there won’t be further strikes, it largely depends on how Iran retaliates. This could be the end of the conflict or just the beginning. There are several American military bases in the region that Iran could target. As an act of desperation, it could block maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow chokepoint through which about a fifth of global oil is transported. Trump, meanwhile, risks fighting a military war alongside a trade war, creating political risks for himself having promised to keep the US out of foreign entanglements, and economic risks for the rest of the world.